Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.3pts: 51¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 50¢ (band 50¢–58¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $6.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $4.2k/$14.7k within 10¢

Book 3.5:1 ask, $4.2k/$14.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 20:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 51¢ → 50¢ (-0.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 25 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.8pts
• Held 77% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots