Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 51¢ at window start → 50¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 51¢ (band 51¢–58¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $11.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.0:1 ask, $3.0k/$15.0k within 10¢

Book 5.0:1 ask, $3.0k/$15.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 18:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 51¢ → 50¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 50¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots