Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 51¢ (band 51¢–54¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $11.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $144.1k/$70.5k within 10¢

Book 2.0:1 bid, $144.1k/$70.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 08:59 UTC: Band breach (lower): 53¢ → 49¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots