US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 67¢ at window start → 66¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 67¢ (band 67¢–77¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $41.6k/$15.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 2.7:1 bid, $41.6k/$15.6k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 01:28 UTC: Band breach (lower): 67¢ → 67¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 66¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 66¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 66¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots