Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 14¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 13¢ (band 13¢–16¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.3× this market's 7-day norm, $20.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $19.7k/$5.4k within 10¢

Book 3.7:1 bid, $19.7k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 22:37 UTC: Band breach (lower): 14¢ → 12¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 12¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 12¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 11¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots