OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
Window 29 Aug 2026, 14:27 UTC → 29 Aug 2026, 15:57 UTC
Price at window start 91¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 92¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 91¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 91¢ (band 60¢–91¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $14.2k/$11.0k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $2.6k in 24h
Book 1.3:1 bid, $14.2k/$11.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 29 Aug 2026, 14:27 UTC: Band breach (upper): 91¢ → 92¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 92¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 92¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots