Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• BOOK Book 9.6:1 ask, $4.8k/$45.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $1.6k in 24h

Book 9.6:1 ask, $4.8k/$45.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 39¢ → 38¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots