Michigan Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +23.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 41¢ (band 38¢–41¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $20.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $137.5k/$91.6k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $137.5k/$91.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 08:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 39¢ → 62¢ (+23.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 7.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +23.0ptspts
• Peak move: +23.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots