REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Window 29 Aug 2026, 01:44 UTC → 29 Aug 2026, 03:14 UTC
Price at window start 49¢ → at trigger 45¢ → at close 43¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 09 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 30¢–35¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
- VOLUME 4.6× this market's 7-day norm, $55.1k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $18.3k/$14.0k within 10¢
Book 1.3:1 bid, $18.3k/$14.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 29 Aug 2026, 01:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 45¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 36 min before the break
US stocks fall as Fed Chair Warsh reiterates inflation fight, raising rate-hike prospects
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.87× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 46¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 45¢, held +4.0ptspts
- Peak move: +6.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 43¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots