Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 30¢–35¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.7× this market's 7-day norm, $67.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 ask, $10.4k/$40.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 285 trades / 7d

Book 3.9:1 ask, $10.4k/$40.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 04:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 47¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots