Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 43¢ (band 30¢–43¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.7× this market's 7-day norm, $67.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $18.3k/$17.6k within 10¢

Book 1.0:1 bid, $18.3k/$17.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 11:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 43¢ → 44¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots