Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 63¢ at window start → 60¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 45¢ (band 41¢–45¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.3× this market's 7-day norm, $29.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 ask, $6.6k/$34.2k within 10¢

Book 5.2:1 ask, $6.6k/$34.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 03:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 59¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 60¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots