OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
Window 29 Aug 2026, 17:29 UTC → 29 Aug 2026, 18:59 UTC
Price at window start 47¢ → at trigger 48¢ → at close 47¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 16 Sept 2026, 17:55 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 47¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
- BOOK Book 2.8:1 bid, $17.6k/$6.3k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h
Book 2.8:1 bid, $17.6k/$6.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 29 Aug 2026, 17:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 48¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 47¢, held -0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 47¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots