Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 30¢–47¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $16.6k/$6.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $216, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 601 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $2.5k in 24h

Book 2.4:1 bid, $16.6k/$6.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 15:16 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 48¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots