Blue wave in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 77¢ at window start → 77¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 77¢ (band 74¢–77¢)
  band from 127 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $38.0k/$14.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $31.5k in 24h

Book 2.6:1 bid, $38.0k/$14.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 21:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 77¢ → 78¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 77¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots