OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 29 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC → 29 Aug 2026, 16:03 UTC
Price at window start 70¢ → at trigger 71¢ → at close 70¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 70¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
- BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $3.7k/$9.8k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $3.5k in 24h
Book 2.7:1 ask, $3.7k/$9.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢
Triggers (1)
- 29 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+0.8pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 70¢, drift -0.6pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 70¢, held +0.3ptspts
- Peak move: +0.8pts
- Held 38% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 70¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots