2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 20¢ at window start → 21¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 21¢ (band 18¢–21¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $32.2k/$25.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.6k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $32.2k/$25.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 20¢ → 21¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 453s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 21¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 21¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 21¢
• Graded from 181 snapshots