2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -25.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 42¢ (band 42¢–45¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 ask, $15.4k/$60.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h

Book 3.9:1 ask, $15.4k/$60.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 29 Aug 2026, 08:59 UTC: Band breach (lower): 44¢ → 19¢ (-25.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 8.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +25.0ptspts
• Peak move: +25.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots