Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Window 28 Aug 2026, 14:55 UTC → 28 Aug 2026, 16:25 UTC
Price at window start 56¢ → at trigger 52¢ → at close 49¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -7.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 66¢ (band 66¢–69¢) band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 5.1× this market's 7-day norm, $1.8M in 24h
BOOK Book 3.4:1 ask, $38.6k/$131.0k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+19m
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $22.9k, 14.1× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 4,578 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T−19m, link confidence 85%: "🔴 Traders now see a September Fed rate hike more likely than a continued hold."
Book 3.4:1 ask, $38.6k/$131.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (4)
28 Aug 2026, 14:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 52¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
28 Aug 2026, 15:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 55¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
28 Aug 2026, 15:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 52¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
28 Aug 2026, 15:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 49¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@DeItaone · X: posted 23 min before the break
📊WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER HIKE BACK IN PLAY
Markets sharply repriced the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
The probability of the Fed holding rates dropped from 71% before the speech to 50%, while odds of a 25bp hike jumped from 30% to 49%.
A rate cut remains virtually off the table at 1%.
Warsh’s inflation-focused message has turned September into a near coin flip.
https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT