Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -12.0pts: 54¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 52¢ (band 52¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $1.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 22.6:1 ask, $40/$906 within 10¢

Book 22.6:1 ask, $40/$906 within 10¢ · spread 7.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 54¢ → 48¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 43¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 37¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +11.5ptspts
• Peak move: +16.5pts
• Held 73% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots