Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 38¢ at window start → 35¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 52¢ (band 52¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $1.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 19.2:1 ask, $64/$1.2k within 10¢

Book 19.2:1 ask, $64/$1.2k within 10¢ · spread 6.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 28 Aug 2026, 17:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 34¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 38¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.69× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift -2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 35¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots