Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $189.1k/$71.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $8.1k, 3.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,764 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $175.3k in 24h

Book 2.7:1 bid, $189.1k/$71.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 08:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 30¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots