Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +8.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.0× this market's 7-day norm, $1.7M in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $221.3k/$92.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $39.8k, 12.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,300 trades / 7d

Book 2.4:1 bid, $221.3k/$92.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 49¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 52¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 23 min before the break

📊WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER HIKE BACK IN PLAY Markets sharply repriced the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The probability of the Fed holding rates dropped from 71% before the speech to 50%, while odds of a 25bp hike jumped from 30% to 49%. A rate cut remains virtually off the table at 1%. Warsh’s inflation-focused message has turned September into a near coin flip. https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 319 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots