Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• VOLUME 5.4× this market's 7-day norm, $6.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $15.9k/$18.4k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 ask, $15.9k/$18.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 15:13 UTC: Band breach (upper): 25¢ → 25¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots