Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +12.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $547.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $39.6k/$45.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $55.0k, 24.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,751 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 ask, $39.6k/$45.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 28 Aug 2026, 12:55 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 30¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 34¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:05 UTC: Band breach (upper): 34¢ → 36¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 40¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 44¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 166 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots