OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Window 28 Aug 2026, 14:16 UTC → 28 Aug 2026, 15:46 UTC
Price at window start 44¢ → at trigger 46¢ → at close 56¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 28 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +13.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 40¢–44¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 7.0× this market's 7-day norm, $1.4k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $605/$713 within 10¢
- WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T+21m, link confidence 75%: "🔴 Traders now see a September Fed rate hike more likely than a continued hold."
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $357, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 31 trades / 7d
Book 1.2:1 ask, $605/$713 within 10¢ · spread 7.0¢
Triggers (4)
- 28 Aug 2026, 14:16 UTC: Band breach (upper): 44¢ → 46¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Aug 2026, 14:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 49¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Aug 2026, 14:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 52¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 28 Aug 2026, 15:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 55¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 50¢, held +6.0ptspts
- Peak move: +13.0pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 56¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots