Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +19.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 30¢–35¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $687 in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 5.0¢

Triggers (7)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 36¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 36¢ → 37¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 40¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 44¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 50¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 46¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 50¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.89× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +18.5ptspts
• Peak move: +19.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots