Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–30¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.7k/$4.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $792 in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.7k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 12:56 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots