Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 52¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 52¢ (band 52¢–58¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $11.8k/$21.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $266, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 387 trades / 7d

Book 1.8:1 ask, $11.8k/$21.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 10:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 52¢ → 51¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 51¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots