Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 29¢ (band 26¢–29¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $12.4k/$12.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.3k, 7.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 507 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $29.3k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 ask, $12.4k/$12.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 28¢ → 30¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 30¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots