Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 87¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 84¢ (band 81¢–84¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.1× this market's 7-day norm, $21.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $13.3k/$13.2k within 10¢

Book 1.0:1 bid, $13.3k/$13.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 04:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 87¢ → 90¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots