Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 25¢ (band 25¢–36¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $16.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $2.8k/$1.4k within 10¢

Book 2.0:1 bid, $2.8k/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 15:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 20¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots