US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 89¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $132.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 ask, $28.9k/$111.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.0k, 4.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,020 trades / 7d

Book 3.9:1 ask, $28.9k/$111.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 18:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 89¢ → 86¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 87 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 86¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 86¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots