US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 27¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–41¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 bid, $44.8k/$14.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.0k, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,912 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $140.9k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 bid, $44.8k/$14.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 03:03 UTC: Band breach (lower): 27¢ → 26¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots