Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.8pts: 89¢ at window start → 90¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 89¢ (band 86¢–89¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $7.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 bid, $12.8k/$5.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $941, 7.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 907 trades / 7d

Book 2.2:1 bid, $12.8k/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 13:54 UTC: Band breach (upper): 89¢ → 90¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 90¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +2.4pts
• Held 77% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 90¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots