Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +9.0pts: 61¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 61¢ (band 55¢–61¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.6× this market's 7-day norm, $35.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $41.7k/$38.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.5k, 12.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 786 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $41.7k/$38.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 61¢ → 62¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 65¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 68¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@financialjuice · X: surfaced 6 min after the break began

🔴 Traders now see about a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike in September, based on pricing in rates futures.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 177 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +7.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.0pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots