Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 60¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 61¢ (band 55¢–61¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $21.4k/$13.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $4.9k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $21.4k/$13.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 07:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 60¢ → 61¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots