Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• BOOK Book 14.7:1 bid, $97.4k/$6.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $7.1k in 24h

Book 14.7:1 bid, $97.4k/$6.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 28 Aug 2026, 17:53 UTC: Band breach (upper): 17¢ → 18¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots