Fed rate hike in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +12.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 58¢ (band 55¢–58¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $64.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 bid, $34.9k/$8.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $7.3k, 13.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 547 trades / 7d

Book 4.1:1 bid, $34.9k/$8.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 61¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 67¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 61¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +12.0ptspts
• Peak move: +13.0pts
• Held 92% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots