Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $39.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $16.5k/$14.1k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $16.5k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 28 Aug 2026, 16:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 50¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 53¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots