Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +19.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $38.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $12.4k/$8.1k within 10¢
• TIMING First reprice T+70m
• WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T+34m, link confidence 92%: "🔴 Traders now see a September Fed rate hike more likely than a continued hold."
• WIRE Wire: @zerohedge T−70m, link confidence 75%: "Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech https://t.co/exuFCZnXkc"
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 238 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 bid, $12.4k/$8.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 31¢ → 36¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 39¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 42¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 47¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 51¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@zerohedge · X: surfaced 2 min after the break began

Warsh says Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards 2% objective Speech highlights (courtesy of Newsquawk) Rates Outlook Warsh says Fed has more work to do unless confident underlying inflation is moving towards 2% objective Policy Stance Warsh says Fed’s predominant focus should currently be on prices Warsh says July meeting’s “good majority” judged waiting was the wiser course Balance of Risks Warsh says price-stability numbers are “more concerning” Inflation Warsh says 2% PCE inflation target is firm and fixed; Fed must deliver stable prices Warsh says summer inflation data were better than expected but do not show underlying trends meaningfully changed Warsh says medium-term inflation expectations are broadly stable but must be closely monitored Warsh says wage growth is moderate but not a reliable indicator of future inflation Labor Market Warsh says labor markets are stable Economy Warsh says economy appears to have strengthened; overall performance is impressive Warsh says business investment is rising rapidly Financial Conditions Warsh says he is “hard-pressed” to describe financial conditions as restrictive Warsh says credit and loan markets show few signs of policy restraint Warsh says market prices show confidence Fed will deliver price stability

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 40 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +17.0ptspts
• Peak move: +21.0pts
• Held 93% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots