Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +11.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 45¢ (band 41¢–45¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.5× this market's 7-day norm, $18.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.5k, 4.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 92 trades / 7d

Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 46¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 50¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 53¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.38× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 51¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +11.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots