Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -9.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 66¢ (band 66¢–70¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.5× this market's 7-day norm, $391.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 ask, $81.3k/$213.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.7k, 7.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,918 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 ask, $81.3k/$213.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 28 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 51¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 55¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 14:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 52¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 28 Aug 2026, 15:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 49¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: surfaced 2 min after the break began

📊WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER HIKE BACK IN PLAY Markets sharply repriced the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The probability of the Fed holding rates dropped from 71% before the speech to 50%, while odds of a 25bp hike jumped from 30% to 49%. A rate cut remains virtually off the table at 1%. Warsh’s inflation-focused message has turned September into a near coin flip. https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 470 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.0pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots