OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 28 Aug 2026, 03:41 UTC → 28 Aug 2026, 05:11 UTC
Price at window start 69¢ → at trigger 70¢ → at close 69¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 69¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $2.8k/$9.7k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $4.4k in 24h
Book 3.5:1 ask, $2.8k/$9.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.3¢
Triggers (1)
- 28 Aug 2026, 03:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 70¢ (+1.8pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 69¢, drift -1.8pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 69¢, held +0.2ptspts
- Peak move: +1.9pts
- Held 3% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots