OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Window 28 Aug 2026, 01:52 UTC → 28 Aug 2026, 03:22 UTC
Price at window start 92¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 92¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 92¢ (band 86¢–92¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 4.0:1 ask, $5.5k/$22.2k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $853 in 24h
Book 4.0:1 ask, $5.5k/$22.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 28 Aug 2026, 01:52 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 92¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 92¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 92¢, held +0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +0.5pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 92¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots