Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 70¢–73¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $156.0k/$421.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $106.7k in 24h

Book 2.7:1 ask, $156.0k/$421.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 74¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 74¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 74¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots