Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 15¢ (band 15¢–18¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 16.4× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0M in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $79.7k/$149.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $59.7k, 92.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,918 trades / 7d

Book 1.9:1 ask, $79.7k/$149.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 27 Aug 2026, 07:06 UTC: Band breach (lower): 16¢ → 14¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 27 Aug 2026, 07:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 11¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 185 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots