Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 38¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–39¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $6.5k/$22.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $5.0k in 24h

Book 3.5:1 ask, $6.5k/$22.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 20:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 36¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 36¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots