Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 51¢ at window start → 50¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 53¢ (band 53¢–59¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $1.7k/$2.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $255 in 24h

Book 1.6:1 ask, $1.7k/$2.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 48¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.46× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 20% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 50¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots