Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 41¢ (band 41¢–65¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $17.7k/$22.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $4.4k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $17.7k/$22.5k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 27 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 41¢ → 40¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots